Parts shortages -will it ever end ?

[exxos]

I really wonder if / when the market will stabilise. I keep getting notifications from mouser for stuff I ordered like 2 years ago now is going to be longer. Some items seem to be a year away still.

As people know already parts shortages has squashed many projects for people. I panic purchased all I could when all the chaos started. But my own stock of stuff is starting to run low now. Its getting harder and harder to keep stuff in production as time goes on. Also I've got a pile of stuff which doesn't seem to be likely to ever sell which is putting a strain on funds. Not to mention peoples living costs is going up so less funds for hobbies. Its ramping up to a huge problem.

Point being, when will shortages end and are prices ever likely going to fall ? Nobody knows I guess. But with rise in energy costs and no end in sight to it changing. I wonder what the future holds.

I can only assume once my current stocks are done , that is going to be it. I may be able to obtain parts in a years time but if ROM chip prices don't come down then it will render all my dualtos boards useless for example. So that one part will render several other kits useless. All kits I have a lot of capital tied up in.

I'm not giving up, don't get me wrong. Though I don't see things stabilising any time soon. I have started thinking about more non-atari related stuff which doesn't take so much time up. That stuff will start appearing over the next several months hopefully. Noting very exciting I might add. Though if I am to keep going then I'm going to have to think about "what's next".

My stock will start to run out in about a years time. So if prices keep going up, even if stuff is actually in stock, I'm not going to invest in 100 ROMs at £20 a pop kind of thing. So it leaves me in a bit of a pickle really. If the bulk of my stock sells out in the next 12months, then restarting production of lots of items wouldn't be something I would not want to do again anyway.

Anyway, what are peoples thoughts / predictions to our future markets ? Wait it out or move on?

[JezC]

Well, we're still not seeing the actual end of the problems overall...but we are seeing a lot fewer shortages than we were before.

Some parts are still hugely difficult to obtain (most STM32 processors are on allocation for another 12-15 months, for example) while a lot of other parts are starting to become much more available from the 'reliable' sources (with a few notable exceptions, including Microchip parts, hence your issues with the ROMs I suspect).

We are seeing the change from a slowdown in demand for many consumer parts (making them more available to us - yay!) but anything automotive is still very difficult to obtain...and, as above, certain manufacturers are seeming still more affected than others.

I'd definitely hold tight and see where we are come the early part of new year - at least some parts should start to be more available!

[exxos]

Some parts are still hugely difficult to obtain (most STM32 processors are on allocation for another 12-15 months, for example) while a lot of other parts are starting to become much more available from the 'reliable' sources (with a few notable exceptions, including Microchip parts, hence your issues with the ROMs I suspect).

Last time I looked a lot of the caps I use are out of stock. The PLDs I use come from Microchip :roll: its all kinda why I've put the STE booster into a batch run as its all generic parts really. Other than the 3M sockets I use. Though I purchased new GAL22V20s a few years ago. Can still find GALs in China, but they iffy at the best of times.

[sporniket]

It's tough. There are also all the recent supplement of troubles you are facing with assembly, that does not help either.

[stephen_usher]

Industry sources have been quoted saying that it's going to get worse before it gets better and no real recovery for a couple of years.

At the moment it's some passives which are becoming hard to obtain, such as electrolytic capacitors. Panasonic ones are unobtainium and RS and Farnell are getting more and more types out of stock with incredible lead times.

[Danoo]

I have been investigating part availability for few different projects I had shelved about 18 months ago due to the availability crisis over the last few weeks. Unless I want to risk parts from the Chinese surplus suppliers (which on past purchases have found there is a approx. a 60 /40 chance of obtaining a serviceable item ) then they will remain dusty on the shelf. Looking at the lead times is just straight-out depressing :(

[rubber_jonnie]

I'm still wanting a 10M08SCE144C8G for the Electron ULA board I have.

They are still pretty much unobtanium, the closest I found was 10 for £500 on eBay. They can be found here if ayone is interested, but they are system pulls and classed as refurbs. Yikes!

I need one, so that's out, and I don't want to risk chineseum either as I only have a single PCB and want to give it the best chance of success.

None of the big stockists (Digikey, Farnell, RS etc) have them and whilst Richard Electronics in Hong Kong have them, they are $270 a piece and that's just silly money for what could end up being chineseum.

Thank god 74LS ICs are still easily available or I'd be royally screwed!!

[exxos]

At the moment it's some passives which are becoming hard to obtain, such as electrolytic capacitors. Panasonic ones are unobtainium and RS and Farnell are getting more and more types out of stock with incredible lead times.

Yep I'm running low on Panasonic caps now. I was buying boxes of them and struggled to get the last lot about a year ago. Some caps I've already substituted . It ends up soaking up a lot of time :(

Also farnell just gets worse. Aside from the price hikes and constantly sending me wrong items.. I'd get a list of items together which will be in stock for ages. Then I order and they out of stock for 12+ months. So I've lost faith in their items being in stock now.

Kits I sell have multiple parts. So if one part is out of stock , I'm screwed and back to looking for parts again. Even pre-covid it soaked up a lot of time looking for best deals on parts etc.

Prices on buying "scrap" Atari's is getting worse and worse. I strip the worse ones which smashed cases etc and sell the chips in my store. But problem there is half the PLCC chips are soldered down. So can't easily remove them. It basically doubles the price of the chips. Now scrap machines is getting silly money, I'd have to start charging £50+ for each chip. Madness.

[exxos]

I have been investigating part availability for few different projects I had shelved about 18 months ago due to the availability crisis over the last few weeks. Unless I want to risk parts from the Chinese surplus suppliers (which on past purchases have found there is a approx. a 60 /40 chance of obtaining a serviceable item ) then they will remain dusty on the shelf. Looking at the lead times is just straight-out depressing :(

Yeah same problems :( paying 2-3x to source from China where any number of parts may not work :(

[exxos]

It's tough. There are also all the recent supplement of troubles you are facing with assembly, that does not help either.

Yeah getting anything done is a ongoing uphill nightmare. Me keep sending packages to China at around £100 a pop is ramping prices up. Some of the chips came from China due to shortages. So it could render the whole batch useless if they turn out to be fake / faulty chips. I'm starting to think all this trouble is a omen to not bother anymore.