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How many sold? German Tank problem : serial nums wtd

Posted: 28 Aug 2025 09:19
by alexh
DML recently commented "I wonder how many Falcon030's were made? How many are still working? How many are in a broken state?"

Well several computer enthusiasts have used the "German Tank Problem" formula to predict how many were made, using the range of serial numbers and using statistical analysis.

https://www.pagetable.com/?p=465
https://www.pagetable.com/?p=547
https://stardot.org.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4321

If you post the exact model of your 16/32-bit Atari (even better the motherboard version), together with the serial number, I will try to estimate how many of each were made using the German Tank formula.

We need quite a few before accuracy becomes valid.

UPDATE: There is a database here: https://milan.kovac.cc/atari/chipmunk/

Re: How many sold? German Tank problem : serial nums wtd

Posted: 28 Aug 2025 09:27
by Steve
We probably have almost every Falcon mobo that's come into contact with our forum here: viewforum.php?f=59

Re: How many sold? German Tank problem : serial nums wtd

Posted: 28 Aug 2025 11:21
by JezC
I need to check if I have uploaded my Falcon mobo info, not least to check what revision it is...
:roll:

Re: How many sold? German Tank problem : serial nums wtd

Posted: 28 Aug 2025 11:58
by mikro
This was already discussed on AF years ago.

I maintain a sort of private s/n list of every Falcon s/n I ever see (not from the case, not from the box ... from the PCB) therefore I'm 99% sure that my numbers here: https://mikrosk.github.io/clockpatch/hi ... nufactured are correct. ~20k by Atari + possibly (if it ever happened) ~2k by C-Lab, period.

I can't remember the last time when I had to update the highest s/n value, always just filling in gaps.